How to work out what a repeat visit is worth

Marketing feels expensive until you can put a number next to it. Here is a simple way to estimate what extra repeat visits are worth to your restaurant.

The formula

Extra visits = monthly guest visits x extra repeat rate
Extra revenue = extra visits x average check

A worked example

A restaurant has 1,500 guest visits a month. Better follow-up lifts repeat visits by 5 percent, which is 75 extra visits. At a $60 average check, that is $4,500 in extra monthly revenue.

Compare that with the $99 monthly cost of the software and the first-order math is easy. The 5 percent is an assumption to test, not a promise.

Two adjustments that keep you honest

• Use margin, not revenue. A visit that brings $60 in revenue does not bring $60 in profit. Multiply by your contribution margin.
• Count only visits you would not have had. Some guests would have come back anyway.

Test it with a holdout

Pick a segment, for example regulars you have not seen in 60 days. Send the campaign to most of them and hold back a small random group. After two weeks compare how many guests in each group booked. The difference is what the campaign added.